本文转自《QUARTZ》发表的题为“Once on the sidelines, carbon capture is now being touted as an economic win”的报道。

作者：Akshat Rathi

日期：2018.07.25

原文链接：https://qz.com/1335075/once-on-the-sidelines-carbon-capture-is-now-being-touted-as-an-economic-win/

To fight climate change, the world needs to cut the amount of carbon dioxide dumped into the atmosphere—fast. One way to make a serious dent is carbon capture, a suite of technologies to trap carbon dioxide produced by industries and fossil-fuel power plants, and then either bury it underground or put it to some use.

为了应对气候变化，全球需要快速减少排放在大气中的二氧化碳含量。 一种有效的方法是碳捕获，这是一套捕获工业和化石燃料发电厂产生的二氧化碳的技术，然后将其埋入地下或将其用于某种用途。

Though carbon capture has been in commercial use since the 1970s, cost has limited progress on deploying it more widely. “The carbon-capture community is a dispirited community,” Rich Powell, director of ClearPath, an organization that lobbies for clean energy, told Quartz this past February. There are currently 17 large-scale plants in the world, mostly in the US, that put away about 40 million metric tons of carbon dioxide—roughly 1% of global annual emissions. (Quartz published an in-depth series on the technology in 2017.)

虽然碳捕获自20世纪70年代以来一直在商业上使用，但成本过高限制了它更广泛地应用和部署。 “碳捕获是令人沮丧的，”ClearPath的主管Rich Powell在今年二月告诉Quartz，ClearPath组织是一个评说清洁能源的组织。 目前世界上有17家大型工厂，大部分位于美国，这些工厂的二氧化碳排放量约为4,000万吨，约占全球年排放量的1％。 （Quartz于2017年发布了关于该技术的深入系列。）

More recently, however, the mood has changed. As part of an omnibus budget bill signed in February, US president Donald Trump passed legislation to incentivize carbon capture through so-called 45Q tax credits. Those capturing and simply burying CO2 would receive $50 per metric ton, and those that put the greenhouse gas to some use would receive $35 per metric ton.

然而，最近，情况发生了变化。 作为2月签署的综合预算法案的一部分，美国总统Donald Trump通过45Q税收抵免来激励碳捕获。 那些捕获和简单地埋藏二氧化碳的人将获得每公吨50美元的奖励，那些将温室气体用于某些用途的人将获得每公吨35美元奖励。

Capturing the potential

抓住潜力

A broader economic case for carbon capture is also gaining strength. A new report from ClearPath and the Carbon Utilization Research Council (CURC) suggests that if the US government continues to deploy the right policies, markets will drive the growth of carbon capture. Titled “Making Carbon a Commodity,” the report estimates that accelerated research, development, and deployment of the technology could add $190 billion to US annual GDP by 2040, and add 780,000 jobs over the same period.

碳捕获的更广泛的经济理由也越来越有说服力。 ClearPath和碳利用研究委员会（CURC）的一份新报告表明，如果美国政府继续部署正确的政策，市场将推动碳捕获的增长。 该报告题为“使碳成为商品”，该报告估计，到2040年，随着该技术的加速研究，开发和部署，可为美国年度GDP增加1900亿美元，并在同期增加78万个就业岗位。

The report’s rosiest projections show the gains that can be achieved by deploying carbon capture on power plants with a capacity of 87 GW (gigawatts)—enough to power 8.7 million homes. The economic incentive to do that would come from increased oil recovery of up to 900 million barrels per year, via a process that involves injecting carbon dioxide in an aging oil field. Because carbon dioxide mixes with oil, it boosts the production of oil while storing away much of the carbon dioxide in the process.

该报告最乐观的预测显示，通过在容量为87吉瓦（千兆瓦）的发电厂上部署碳捕获可以实现收益 - 足以为870万户家庭供电。 这样做的经济动力来自于每年石油采收量增加高达9亿桶，这一过程涉及在老化油田注入二氧化碳。 因为二氧化碳与石油混合，它可以促进油的生产，同时在此过程中储存大量的二氧化碳。

As a conservative estimate, the report predicts an economic boost of $70 billion to US annual GDP by 2040, as well as 270,000 new jobs, 17 GW of fossil-fuel power plants with carbon capture (enough to power 1.7 million homes), and 100 million barrels additional of oil recovered each year. It’s notable the report mentions “climate change” only once and does not include the economic benefits that can be derived from avoided emissions through the use of carbon capture.

据保守估计，该报告预测，到2040年，美国年度GDP将增加700亿美元，新增就业岗位27万个，拥有17吉瓦化石燃料发电厂的碳捕获量（足以为170万户家庭供电），以及每年增产石油数量1亿桶。 值得注意的是，该报告仅提及一次“气候变化”，并未包括使用碳捕获技术可以避免排放，从而获得经济效益。

To achieve many of these gains, the report recommends creating public-private partnerships to develop and scale up early-stage technologies. This is important to overcome one of the crucial challenges of carbon capture: large capital investment. Carbon capture is only economical if done at large scale, squirreling away roughly 1 million metric tons of carbon dioxide per year or more at each installation. ClearPath and CURC say that the US Department of Energy’s (DOE) funding can play a crucial role in making such partnerships work. It was DOE funding that helped build Petra Nova in Texas—the first and only carbon-capture unit in the US that is installed on a coal-fired power plant.

为了实现这些成果，报告建议建立公私伙伴关系，以发展和扩大早期技术。 这对于克服碳捕获的关键挑战之一非常重要：大量资本投资。 碳捕获只有在大规模进行时才是经济的，每年大约储存100万吨二氧化碳或更多。 ClearPath和CURC表示，美国能源部（DOE）的资金可以在使这种伙伴关系发挥作用方面发挥关键作用。 美国能源部的资金帮助了德克萨斯州建造Petra Nova--这是美国第一个也是唯一一个安装在燃煤发电厂的碳捕集装置。

The report also recommends streamlining some regulations and rolling back others. If carbon-capture deployment is to work, for example, states will have to build new or extend already existing pipelines to transport carbon dioxide from where it is captured to where it may be buried or used. These pipelines require bureaucratic permitting processes, which add cost and delays to carbon-capture projects. Controversially, the report also recommends that the US Environmental Protection Agency relax reporting requirements on how much carbon dioxide is buried by enhanced oil-recovery projects. Along with the report, CURC and the Electric Power Research Institute have published a roadmap to work through the development of early-stage technologies.

该报告还建议简化一些法规并缩减其他法规。 例如，如果碳捕获部署起作用，各州将不得不建造新的或扩展现有的管道，来将二氧化碳从捕获的地方运输到可能被埋藏或使用的地方。 这些管道需要官僚许可程序，这增加了碳捕获项目的成本和延迟。 有争议的是，该报告还建议美国环境保护局放宽关于通过强化石油采收项目埋藏多少二氧化碳的报告要求。 随着该报告，CURC和电力研究所发布了一个路线图，以此来开发早期技术。

Too rosy?

过于乐观？

ClearPath and CURC rely on modeling efforts to project costs and benefits of carbon capture. The analysts used projections from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) to draw their conclusions. According to the EIA, coal and natural gas will provide 56% of the country’s electricity in 2040 (versus 62% in 2017), with little to no dip in demand for oil. On the flip side, Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates there will be no coal left in the mix and renewables will contribute 55% of US electricity by 2050. It expects oil demand to fall steeply.

ClearPath和CURC依靠建模工作来预测碳捕获的成本和收益。 分析师利用美国能源信息署（EIA）的预测得出结论。 根据环境影响评估，煤炭和天然气将在2040年提供该国56％的电力（2017年为62％），对石油的需求几乎没有下降。 另一方面，彭博新能源财经估计，混合物中不会剩余煤炭，到2050年，可再生能源将占美国电力的55％。预计石油需求将大幅下降。

Energy experts widely agree that, given the pace of change in the industry, few if any models will be proven correct all the way out to 2040. But, as a famous statistician once said: “All models are wrong, but some are useful.” The report is the first to lay down the case for the long-term economic potential of an emissions-cutting technology that scientists believe is crucial to hit climate goal. Its critics can use the report’s assumptions to build their own models.

能源专家普遍认为，鉴于行业的变化速度，到2040年，几乎没有任何一种模型被证明是正确的。但是，正如一位着名的统计学家曾经说过：“所有模型都是错误的，但有些模型是有用的。 “该报告首次为科学家认为对于实现气候目标至关重要的减排技术的长期经济潜力奠定了基础。 它的批评者可以使用报告的假设来建立自己的模型。

After years of struggling, carbon capture may finally have the favorable policies needed to scale up. But it’s too early to say if those policies are enough of an incentive. Six months since the 45Q tax credits were approved, there has been only one carbon-capture project announced. To reap all the benefits, the carbon-capture community needs to do a lot more.

经过多年的努力，碳捕获可能最终会有扩大规模所需的有利政策。 但现在说这些政策是否足够激励还为时过早。 自45Q税收抵免获得批准以来的六个月，仅宣布了一个碳捕获项目。 为了获得所有的好处，碳捕获团体还需要做更多的事情。