本文转自《Nature Communications》发表的题为“Estimating geological CO2 storage security to deliver on climate mitigation”的文章。

作者：Juan Alcalde, Stephanie Flude, Mark Wilkinson, Gareth Johnson, Katriona Edlmann, Clare E. Bond, Vivian Scott, Stuart M. V. Gilfillan, Xènia Ogaya & R. Stuart Haszeldine

期刊号：Nature Communicationsvolume 9, Article number: 2201 (2018)

刊出日期：2018.06.12

原文链接：https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04423-1?utm_source=twt_nr&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=NNPnature

这篇文章主要讲了：捕获的二氧化碳可以通过液化注入到地下深层常见岩石的微观孔隙空间而安全存放数千年。

这一发现在Nature Communications上发表，增加了对工程碳捕获和存储的广泛推广的信心。

Abstract

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can help nations meet their Paris CO2 reduction commitments cost-effectively. However, lack of confidence in geologic CO2 storage security remains a barrier to CCS implementation. Here we present a numerical program that calculates CO2 storage security and leakage to the atmosphere over 10,000 years. This combines quantitative estimates of geological subsurface CO2 retention, and of surface CO2 leakage. We calculate that realistically well-regulated storage in regions with moderate well densities has a 50% probability that leakage remains below 0.0008% per year, with over 98% of the injected CO2 retained in the subsurface over 10,000 years. An unrealistic scenario, where CO2 storage is inadequately regulated, estimates that more than 78% will be retained over 10,000 years. Our modelling results suggest that geological storage of CO2 can be a secure climate change mitigation option, but we note that long-term behaviour of CO2 in the subsurface remains a key uncertainty.

碳捕集与封存（CCS）可帮助各国实现成本效益的巴黎二氧化碳减排承诺。然而，对地质二氧化碳储存安全缺乏信心仍然是CCS实施的障碍。在这里我们提出一个计算二氧化碳储存安全性和超过一万年大气泄漏的数值程序。这结合了地质次表层CO2保留量和地表CO2泄漏量的定量估计。我们计算出，在中等密度井区域内，实际上受到良好监管的存储有50％的概率，即泄漏持续低于每年0.0008％，其中注入的二氧化碳的超过98％保留在地下1万年以上。一个不切实际的情景，二氧化碳封存管理不当，估计超过78％将被保留超过1万年。我们的模拟结果表明，二氧化碳的地质储存可以成为一个可靠的减缓气候变化的选择，但我们注意到地下CO2的长期行为仍然是一个关键的不确定性。